Wednesday, January 28, 2009

An Unstable North Korea

Two Council on Foreign Relations analysts are warning of possible instability in North Korea.

The pair cite continuing uncertainties about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il and possible succession arrangements.

In a new report, they say these concerns “warrant heightened attention and preparation” by U.S. policymakers.

“The risks are too great and the stakes too high” for U.S. policymakers “to rely on last-minute improvisation for a peaceful and stable outcome” in nuclear-armed North Korea, says the report sponsored by CFR’s Center For Preventive Action.

In preparing for sudden change, the report recommends that the United States “continue to promote behavioral change within the current regime rather than actively seek to overthrow it unless extreme circumstances dictate otherwise.” But it cautions that, “he United States should not support efforts to prop up the current regime beyond the point at which it has clearly ceased to govern effectively.”

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

If I remember rightly Kim Jong Il was handed the leadership of North Korea by some sort of 'divine' dictate from his father.... unless there has been some similar sort of epiphany then I would imagine that the leadership of this country will be very much in the lap of the gods.

The big question for me with North Korea is not how much we do know, but how much we don't know.
We don't know how strong the opposition to Kim Jong Il there is, and how potentially militant they are. We also have no real indication of the true extent of their nucleur capability.

Western Nations are wise to keep an eye on what's happening there, and maybe they also need to keep an eye on neighbouring states, particularly South Korea China.