In the most optimistic prediction of the resolution of the economic crisis to date, the National Association for Business Economics says the recession will end in the second half of 2009 and there will be substantial growth in the economy next year.
The NABE cautions, however, that meaningful recovery won't be evident until next year. Still, that's a much better outlook than any other that's being offered.
Things will, however, get worse, says the NABE, before they get better.
"Further pronounced weakening in housing and deteriorating labor markets underscore the risks for 2009,” said NABE President Chris Varvares.
Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers says that it's expected that there will be a sharp, 5 percent contraction in the economy the first quarter of 2009. Followed by a decline of a 1.7 percent in the second quarter. But Varvares says NABE forecasters expect real GDP to rise at a sub-par 1.6% rate in the second half.
He says this leaves a decline of .9 percent overall in 2009, on the heels of a .2% decline in 2008.
Although the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 9 percent by year-end, "the good news," Varvares says, is that "economic activity is expected to turn up in the second half of the year and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1 percent.”We talk about these issues and more weekdays at 5 PM New York time on News Talk Online on Paltalk.com